An Extended Bayesian Hierarchical Model Predicted SARS-CoV-2 Cases and Reproductions After Vaccination in England

In the UK, one of worst affected countries by SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic, UK government has released a comprehensive vaccination plan for and will set up more sites in coming months to expand service people. We built an extended Bayesian hierarchical prediction model predict number cases breeding situation after nine districts England. Based on population each region, deaths IFR (the infection mortality ratio) region were predicted. found that EAST, NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST had largest IFR, corresponding death numbers 29,079, 28,734 25,201, respectively. Reproduction ( ) is expected drop below 1 all regions January 7, 12, 16, 13, 10, 17, 18 14, Major vaccine interventions have been effective reducing transmission areas England given rate infected people epidemiological characteristics SARS-CoV-2. also among aged 70 80 made significant contribution virus. The can be forecast effects certain public health emergencies, effect preventing spread disease, different age groups find best way control disease. It drug non-drug combination solutions.